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Western and Southern states saw larger unemployment increases in March due to the coronavirus outbreak than much of the rest of the country.
Unemployment spiked in Nevada last month, according to new government data.
A GROUP OF MOSTLY Western and Southern states saw their unemployment rates spike more substantially than much of the rest of the country in the early days of coronavirus-related lockdown and social distancing measures, according to an analysis of government data published on Friday.
Colorado weathered the most substantial unemployment rate increase last month, as its unemployment rate rose from 2.5% to 4.5% – an 80% increase. Second to Colorado was Nevada, where unemployment jumped from 3.6% to 6.3%. Florida, Nebraska and Utah round out the top five, followed by Kentucky,Arkansas, California, Georgia, Illinois and Rhode Island.
"Nearly three-fifths of state unemployment rates rose in March as labor market conditions deteriorated in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak," Oren Klachkin, lead economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a research note on Friday. "Most census regions recorded the largest ever one-month increase in their unemployment rate."
The report published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics points specifically to the coronavirus outbreak and the subsequent closures of nonessential businesses across the country as the reason for the unemployment spike. Unemployment climbed in 29 states as the national jobless rate jumped to 4.4%.
The report notes, however, that it is "important to keep in mind" that official March unemployment numbers far undersell the true scope of America's unemployment crisis. Government statisticians based their calculations on how the economy was doing in mid-March – before much of the country was shut down under social distancing and stay-at-home orders to prevent the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.
Still, Western and Mountain states saw early unemployment spikes even as some states didn't institute stay-at-home orders until late March. In Colorado, for example, Democratic Gov. Jared Polis ordered nonessential businesses to adjust the percentage of their on-site staff on March 22, but he didn't issue a full stay-at-home order until March 25. Yet Colorado's unemployment rate rose 2 percentage points last month.
States that were earlier to shut down businesses last month, however, were naturally among the states with the highest unemployment rates. In Nevada, where Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak on March 17 shuttered casinos, hotels and other nonessential businesses, the unemployment rate climbed by 2.7 percentage points to 6.3%.
"The sharp deterioration in Nevada's labor market conditions is no surprise given its vulnerabilities, namely its dependence on tourism activity," Klachkin said.
Pennsylvania, meanwhile, had the fourth-highest unemployment rate in the country last month at 6%. Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf was among the first state officials to order a nonessential business shutdown on March 16.
The report notes that unemployment fell, at least on paper, in seven states last month – including Connecticut, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Idaho, Hawaii, Mississippiand Alaska. But experts predict unemployment will be revised higher in next month's report as more data comes in.
Unemployment claims have soared in all seven of those states in recent weeks. With disaster declarations and coronavirus infections now present in all 50 states, unemployment is expected to rise across the country.
"Looking ahead, with most of the U.S. population under some form of lockdown, we will experience unprecedented job losses across the country," Klachkin said. "Nationally, we anticipate that 27 million jobs will be lost in April and May combined, with 24 million of those losses expected in April while the unemployment rate is forecast to surge to 14%."