Say Goodbye, Bernie

The tables have turned for Joe Biden, who himself just weeks ago heard the calls to abandon his bid for president.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) speaks at a campaign rally in Dearborn, Michigan, on Saturday.

Just two weeks ago, Sen. Bernie Sanders appeared on an unstoppable path to the nomination, and pressure was mounting on Joe Biden to get out of the race so another moderate candidate could take on the Vermont lawmaker one on one.

After Tuesday nights results – which had the former vice president taking the big prize of Michigan, along with Mississippi and Missouri – the tables have turned 180 degrees, and it is Sanders who will be facing pressure to move aside so the party can rally around Biden and build a coalition to achieve their central goal: to oust President Donald Trump.

Before polls had even closed in Idaho, Washington state and North Dakota, the primary narrative was written in ink, with leading political forces declaring Biden as the near-certain choice to face Trump in November.

"The math is now clear. Joe Biden is going to be the Democratic nominee for President and @prioritiesUSA is going to do everything we can to help him defeat Donald Trump in November. I hope others will join us in the fight," tweeted Guy Cecil, chairman of the Democratic SuperPAC Priorities USA. Until last night, the group – and Cecil – had been studiously neutral in the primary.

"The only question for Sanders now is if he will stay in to debate Biden" in Phoenix on Sunday, tweeted University of Florida professor Michael McDonald, an expert on elections.

"It would take the most improbable Hail Mary performance for him to turn the race around, but he might still relish the idea of debating Biden one-on-one."

Sanders had hoped for a win in Michigan, which resurrected his campaign in 2016. But exit polling found that Sanders had lost support in so many categories of voters there, with Biden well overperforming among voters Hillary Clinton took that year. The results suggested that much of Sanders' success, however limited, in 2016 was that he was an alternative to Clinton.

Sanders, having canceled a Cleveland rally Tuesday night because of the coronavirus threat, headed to Vermont, his home state and did not plan to speak publicly Tuesday night. Biden – who had also canceled an Ohio rally for the same reason – headed to Pennsylvania, which holds its primary in April. He also announced he would deliver a major address in Wilmington, Delaware, on Thursday on the coronavirus crisis – a move that made him look much more like a general election candidate than someone scrambling for delegates to sew up the nomination.

Biden, speaking to a small group in Philadelphia, thanked Sanders supporters for their “tireless energy and their passion,” and said he would work to earn every vote. It was a sign he expected those votes were coming up for grabs.

Businessman Andrew Yang, who ran for the Democratic nomination this year and in 2016 endorsed Sanders, announced Tuesday night he was endorsing Biden, following nine other Democratic primary competitors.

Biden does not have the 1,991 delegates needed to claim the nomination. But while other candidates have abandoned their quests for the presidency when it was clear the math was not in their favor, Sanders may not go so quietly, analysts say.

Unlike other presidential hopefuls, Sanders was not just running a campaign but leading a progressive movement to remake the Democratic Party in his democratic socialist image, moving the party to the left with such policy items as "Medicare for All" and free college tuition and public schools.

"I do believe it will take the Jaws of Life to get Bernie out of the race," says pollster John Zogby. "It is a movement, and it is one he has defined, and it is galvanized around him."

Even if it's clear Sanders will be the runner-up, "it's very important for him to go to the convention and to have delegates," Zogby says. "Being in second place – not only will there be enough noise, but it's high-intensity noise."

The crowded Democratic field accelerated a theme of earlier presidential campaigns, with voters and fellow candidates alike wondering why a particular struggling contender didn't just get out of the race already. In the case of Biden and other so-called moderates in the party, supporters of numerous candidates grumbled that they were all dividing the moderate vote and should instead coalesce around Biden, or maybe Sen Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota or former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

Once Klobuchar and Buttigieg got out, supporters of Sanders fumed that Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts should step aside so Sanders could consolidate the progressive vote and run a more competitive race against Biden.

But even with the delegate gap widening, it's not easy for any contender to pack it in, campaign veterans say. An exception is former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who spent hundreds of millions of dollars of his own money to mount a Super Tuesday strategy and failed to win any delegates from a U.S. state (he won the primary in American Samoa).

Bloomberg bowed out the day after, cutting his losses as though his presidential campaign were an investment that didn't turn out to be profitable.

But for candidates who put their hearts and souls into the effort – especially someone like Sanders, who has a very devoted base of support – the task is harder.

Warren took an extra day to decide, delivering an emotional address thanking her campaign staff and saying how sorry she was that little girls would need to wait at least four more years to see a woman become president.

"Facing that reality is really hard" for any campaign, says Democratic consultant Eric Schmeltzer, who worked on Howard Dean's presidential campaign. A candidate, he says, will look at the math, come up with a scenario under which he could win – however improbable it might be – and forges ahead.

"It's spin on the one hand, but you also convince yourself," adds Schmeltzer, who supports Sanders for president but says he will vote for the Democratic nominee even if it's not the Vermont lawmaker.

With Sanders, the situation is more delicate, analysts say, because of residual resentment from 2016, when Sanders backers felt the Democratic establishment tipped the scales to favor Hillary Clinton.

"I think the pressure is going to be slightly different. It won't be to get out – it will be to act responsibly," says Matt Bennett, executive vice president of the centrist group Third Way. Bennett noted that Sanders staff members have retweeted comments questioning Biden's mental acuity and "he has got to cut the crap. Biden will very likely be the nominee," and raising questions about his ability to do the job "is really doing the work for Trump."

Biden's task ahead will be to win over disgruntled – and even angry – Sanders supporters, some of whom have declared on Twitter that they would rather stay home than cast a ballot for Biden. The former vice president likely needs their votes to beat Trump in November.

In the meantime, Sanders is learning a lesson Biden was having thrust at him just weeks ago.

"It's hard to leave the big stage when you likely never get back on it," David Plouffe, Barack Obama's campaign manager in 2008, tweeted Feb. 23, when Biden was struggling. Sanders, at 78, may need to accept that reality very soon.